Enquest [ENQ] - Updated Interim & FY Turnover (2022) - is the ENQ share ...

Serica Energy: H1 2022 Forecast Turnover (11th August 2022)

Now that Serica Energy [SQZ] have confirmed (9th August 2022) that they no longer intend to submit a firm offer for Kistos plc [KIST] and the reverse has also been confirmed by Kistos, we still need to consider what the likely H1 Results will be for Serica Energy. Has anything changed recently to alter my view of the likely turnover for SQZ - either for the half year to 30th June (completed) or for the full year (12mths to 31st December 2022)?

If you haven't seen my video (26th July 2022), you may wish to watch this first...

   

  Update (11th August 2022)

Now that things have settled down, it's worth checking the recent UK gas prices, for clues on the second half turnover and also for the com pleted first 6 months of the Serica financial year.

As you can see (above), the prospects for a positive pricing framework for the second half seems very likely. Incidentally, I've added vertical lines & annotation, to make the SQZ first half clear. We approach the winter, with the energy crisis very much on everyone's minds. The gas price, in the first 6 weeks of this second half period are clearly higher than the Q2 price levels (April-June).

In summary, if anything the turnover levels that I've calculated in the above video could well be too conservative. Had there been any recent (negative) announcements, regarding production, from Serica, then I might have had doubts but on current information I'm reasonably confident about my calculations!

Mick (11th August 2022)

How to Add a Stock Alert (LSE) - 2nd April 2019

Tutorial : Adding a Stock Alert - Using the LSE Website

Kenmare Resources (27th October 2017)

Kenmare Resources (KMR) - VideoCast

Recent News-Flow

Mick (27th October 2017)

Portfolio Review (23rd August 2017)

Mick Pavey Reviews The Active DIY-Investors Portfolios

In this short VideoCast, Mick outlines the recent changes in the 2017 Portfolios...

Join our community of DIY-Investors Here! 

Mick (23rd August 2017)

Serica Energy - Overlooked (16th Nov. 2016)?

Is Serica Energy(SQZ) - Being Overlooked?

DIY-Investors Inner Circle Members will be aware that I've mentioned Serica Energy before (See Part 2 of the Post from 7th June 2016), however, for those that like following trends, now might be a good time to take a fresh look...

As you can see from the graph (below), SQZ has had a good twelve months - breaking through the 200 day moving average and more than doubling in price.

Graph (SharePad - intra-day [16th Nov. 2016])

However, there are a few reasons why I think that Serica Energy may be worth a fresh look, such as:

• The OBV has stayed consistently strong over the past twelve months, not falling back as the share price has retreated periodically.
• The RSI is now towards th eoversold end of its range (at its lowest for more than 12 months).
• There seems to be a strong uptrend developing in the200 day moving average, mirroring the support line that I've added (in blue) on the graph.

With that said, let's have a look at the Sharescope Key Metrics...

Key Metrics

Key points to note, from the Key Metrics include:

• Low PE (3.1[h] and 4.9[pr])
• Rising Turnover (PSR still below 3)
• Positive ROCE (23%) last year
• Profits forecast to grow from £2.92m to £4.25m
• Free Cash Flow of £2.26m last year (77% of the pre-tax profit)
• No borrowings

News-Flow

Following pipeline disruption earlier in the year, oil and gas production from the Company's Erskine field resumed in early September.

As ever, DYOR!

Mick (16th November 2016)

Avocet Mining (AVM) - Breakout?

Breakout (28th April 2016) - AVM, Q1 Production Report

The RNS released this morning, by Avocet Mining, certainly produced a positive price reaction (see the Sharepad graph below):

The RNS (Q1 Production Report) is below:

This follows hard on the heels of the preliminary results, released just two days ago...

AVM - Preliminary Results (Summary):

Mick's View:

The combination of improved gold prices, the prelim and Q1 reports (above), should be of interest to all DIY-Investors in my opinion... of course, you'll need to DYOR and make up your own minds on that!

As usual, I'd be interested in your views, so why not leave a comment below?

Mick (28th April 2016)

Where Next For The ASX (11th Feb. 2016)

ASX Down 2.3% Today

What do you think about "Where Next" For The ASX?

Mick (11th February 2016)

Make Space for SAL (1st Feb 2016)

Space & People : Trading Update & New Contract

The RNS released this morning looks interesting...

Summary of RNS Text...

New Contract Signed

• SpaceandPeople has signed a multi-year contract, which commenced on 1st January 2016, to manage promotional space at British Land's Drake Circus Shopping Centre in Plymouth. SpaceandPeople expects to extend this contract across 40 other assets, covering the majority of British Land's multi-let retail portfolio in due course.
• With a high quality vision for their venues, British Land has chosen SpaceandPeople based on the company's track-record in brand experience and outdoor marketing.
• Retail assets in the portfolio include Meadowhall, Sheffield; Ealing Broadway, London; Old Market, Hereford; Glasgow Fort, Glasgow; Fort Kinnaird, Edinburgh; Teeside, Stockton-on-Tees; Broughton, Chester; and New Mersey, Speke.

Matthew Bending, SpaceandPeople CEO, said:

"This is a significant win for SpaceandPeople, and will complement our existing business. Our team has a wealth of knowledge and we are looking forward to supporting British Land's vision of 'Places People Prefer' across the UK."

Trading Update

• Trading in the second half of 2015 was in line with management expectations. Management expects profit before tax attributable to shareholders for the year to be approximately £1.0 million. Whilst this is slightly below current market expectations, the principal reason for this is due to a timing difference following a decision to recognise an element of promotional revenue that is now derived from Mobile Promotions Kiosks ("MPKs") on the same basis as we recognise revenue from Retail Merchandising Units. This change has resulted in the deferral of £150k of net promotional revenues from 2015 to 2016. The decision to account for revenue in this manner gives management better sight of future revenue and will be the standard accounting treatment applied to this type of revenue going forward.
• During 2015 the new MPK concept was rolled out as planned with 46 units operational by the end of the year. A decision was also taken to accelerate our investment in France during the final quarter of 2015, in advance of the Immochan contract start date of 1 January 2016, which is expected to help drive revenue more effectively.
• Despite these decisions, basic EPS is expected to be in line with market expectations at 4.3p and as a result, the Board intends to propose a final dividend of 2.2p per share at the forthcoming Annual General Meeting. This is a 10% increase on the 2.0p dividend paid in April 2015.
• After the investment of £650k in MPKs during 2015, net cash as at 31 December was £0.75 million plus an additional £400k held in escrow (2014: £1.6 million).

---------------------  End of RNS Summary  --------------------------------------------------------------

This could be of interest to us DIY-Investors... what do you think?

Mick (1st February 2016)

Verona Pharma - RNS (29th September 2015)

Verona Pharma (VRP) - Update on RPL554 Clinical Study

The RNS released this morning looks encouraging, see below:

---------------------------------  Start of RNS Summary  ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

29 Sep 2015 07:00:00

Verona Pharma PLC

Verona Pharma plc

("Verona Pharma" or the "Company")

 Positive headline data from RPL554 clinical study in COPD patients

New suspension formulation is well tolerated; results signal marked improvement in lung function 

RPL554 remains on track for entry into Phase IIb clinical trials in 2H 2016

29 September 2015, Cardiff ? Verona Pharma plc (AIM: VRP.L), the drug development company focused on first-in-class medicines to treat respiratory diseases, today announces encouraging positive headline data of the third and final part (part C) of a randomised, double blind, placebo controlled Single Ascending Dose (SAD) / Multiple Ascending Dose (MAD) clinical study in stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients. This study uses a new proprietary and commercially scalable nebulised suspension formulation of the Company?s lead pipeline drug, RPL554.^1,2 The primary objective of this part of the study was to show the safety and tolerability of the new drug formulation in stable COPD patients with moderate severity of disease.³ Measurement of lung function using FEV1⁴ was included. Evaluation of the full data set is ongoing and will be presented in an appropriate scientific, peer-reviewed forum at a later date.

Highlights: Part C of study in 32 stable COPD patients with moderate disease severity³

• Primary objective of study met: Drug formulation well tolerated at all dose levels; No serious adverse events reported
  • Adverse event profile similar to that seen with placebo
  • Absence of gastro-intestinal or cardiovascular adverse events

• RPL554 caused pronounced improvement in lung function
  • Mean peak FEV1 increase ranged from 199ml to 257ml versus placebo
  • Extent of bronchodilation exceeds that seen in earlier studies with original proof of concept formulation

• Data continue to support twice daily dosing regimen with RPL554

• Data consistent with that from earlier part A and B of study in healthy volunteers
• Evaluation of the full data set from this trial is ongoing

-------------------------------------------  End of RNS Summary  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Full announcement can be seen HERE!

The Sharescope price graph is also very interesting...

Verona Pharma - SharePrice Graph (10 months)

Summary

The news-flow has been positive for Verona Pharma, in relation to RPL554 and it could eventually cause this share to "take off". As ever, it's a matter of judgement as to whether to invest (and when)... take a look and let me know what you think.

Mick (29th September 2015)

Dart Group - Preliminary Results (16th July 2015)

Dart Group (DTG) - Pre-Tax Profit Up

The preliminary results from Dart Group look quite impressive this morning. The key points are as follows:

• underlying pre-tax profits of £57.2m for the year to the end of March - up 36% compared to last year
• Group Turnover up by 12% to £1,253.2m - underlying operating profits were up 3% at £50.6m, this reflected improved trading and continued investment in Darts Leisure Travel business.
• Allowing for an exceptional provision of £17.0m, in relation to potential passenger compensation claims (for historical flight delays under Regulation (EC) No 261/2004) - group profit before tax (pbt) fell 5% to £40.2m.
• Leisure Travel turnover growth of 14% to £1,101.5m (2014: £967.0m) reflected an 8% increase in passenger sectors flown, in line with increased seat capacity. There was also a 20% increase in package holiday customers.
• Distribution & Logistics added £151.7m of turnover (2014: £153.2m).

Link to full results HERE

AGA - Possible Offer (17th June 2015)

Aga Rangemaster Group (AGA) - Possible Offer

Those of us following AGA Rangemaster will be interested in the RNS announcement today, as follows:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RNS Number : 4628Q

Aga Rangemaster Group PLC

17 June 2015

Strictly Private & Confidential

NOT FOR RELEASE, PUBLICATION OR DISTRIBUTION, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN, INTO OR FROM ANY JURISDICTION WHERE TO DO SO WOULD CONSTITUTE A VIOLATION OF THE RELEVANT LAWS OR REGULATIONS OF SUCH JURISDICTION

THIS IS AN ANNOUNCEMENT FALLING UNDER RULE 2.4 OF THE CITY CODE ON TAKEOVERS AND MERGERS (THE "CODE") AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE AN ANNOUNCEMENT OF A FIRM INTENTION TO MAKE AN OFFER UNDER RULE 2.7 OF THE CODE. THERE CAN BE NO CERTAINTY THAT AN OFFER WILL BE MADE, NOR AS TO THE TERMS ON WHICH ANY OFFER MIGHT BE MADE

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

17 June 2015

AGA Rangemaster Group plc ("AGA" or the "Company")

Statement regarding Possible Offer

The Company notes the recent movement in the Company's share price and confirms that it is in discussions with The Middleby Corporation ("Middleby") regarding a possible cash offer for the Company.

There can be no certainty that any formal offer will be made, or as to the terms of any offer.

In accordance with Rule 2.6(a) of the Code, Middleby is required, by no later than 5.00 p.m. on 15 July 2015, to either announce a firm intention to make an offer for the Company in accordance with Rule 2.7 of the Code or announce that it does not intend to make such an offer, in which case the announcement will be treated as a statement to which Rule 2.8 of the Code applies. This deadline may be extended with the consent of the Takeover Panel in accordance with Rule 2.6 of the Code.

In accordance with Rule 2.10 of the Code, the Company confirms that, as at the date of this announcement, it has 69,264,223 ordinary shares of 46 7/8p nominal value each in issue and admitted to trading on the London Stock Exchange's main market for listed securities. The International Securities Identification Number of the ordinary shares is GB00B2QMX606. 

In accordance with Rule 26.1 of the Code, a copy of this announcement will be available on the Company's website at www.agarangemaster.com. 

The content of the website referred to in this announcement is not incorporated into and does not form part of this announcement.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The affect on the share price was a gain of 31.25p (+30.0%) today, as can be seen from the graph below...

Speedy Hire (SDY) : 12th May 2015

Will Speedy Hire "Speed Up"?

Speedy Hire (SDY), issued its Preliminary Results today (12th May 2015). These show that things are progressing well at the plant hire firm (see below)...

Couple these results with the "Breakout" from the recent downtrend and DIY-Investors might well benefit from taking a closer look at Speedy Hire.

What do think of the prospects for Speedy Hire over the next 12 months?

Mick (12th May 2015)

This May Be Worth Checking (29th April 2015)

Is Exillon Energy (EXI) Under-Valued?

If you have a look at the Sharescope Graph and Key Metrics (see below), you may see what I mean...

The Key Points (IMHO) are:

• Low PTBV (0.51)
• Low PEG (0.14)
• Modest PCF (3.411)
• Growing Profit
• Growing Turnover
• Good TA (strong OBV)
• Increasing oil production (see recent RNS releases [not shown])

As ever, you'll need to DYOR but the results (expected tomorrow) should be worth analysing.

What do you think?

Mick (29th April 2015)

Cenkos - Breakout (26th March 2015)

Cenkos Securities (CNKS) - Trend Breakout

Join the DIY-Investors Inner Circle to keep up to date with techniques for "Picking Winning Shares".

Any Thoughts (Fri 6th March 2015)?

PFD - Lateral Breakout?

Premier Foods (19th January 2015)

The chart of Premier Foods has been on my radar screen since the Christmas period, as the price gently slid (laterally) out through the gently sloping downtrend line that has been in place since last September. This line itself marked a more shallow downtrend than the longer running line, in place since April 2014 (see graph below)...

I'm interested in the 50 day moving avergae (blue line), which has just started to turn up and the fact that the downtrend on the OBV has also been broken (to the upside). Supporting this are buy signals on both ADX indicators (annotated on the graph).

Key Metrics

The key points, from the Key metrics (above) are:

• Low PSR (0.18)
• Low PE(pr) of 4.7
• Low PCF & P/FCF (1.559 & 1.646 [respectively])

However, don't forget to check out the share dilution as a result of the placing and rights issue (completed in April 2014).

RNS (Management Statement)

The following RNS states that Q4 Management Statement will be released on Friday 23rd January 2015. I also note that there is a link to a webinar... I might just listen in!

16 January 2015

Notification of Management Statement

Premier Foods' Quarter 4 Management Statement for the quarter to 31 December 2014 and summary results for the 12 months to 31 December 2014 will be released at 7.00am on Friday, 23 January 2015.  This will be followed by a webinar for investors and analysts at 9:00am, hosted by Gavin Darby, CEO and Alastair Murray, CFO. The details are outlined below.

Webinar registration link:

www.premierfoods.co.uk/investor-relations/

Summary

Notwithstanding the mixed signals, it may be worth keeping a close watch on PFD in the next few months. What do you think?

Mick (19th January 2015)

A Pretty Picture (23rd October 2014)?

Photo-Me International (PHTM) - AGM Statement

Today's AGM Statement paints a pretty picture for shareholders of Photo-Me International.

The Summary of the AGM Statement is shown here:

"The Group published an IMS on 12 September 2014 and is pleased to report that the positive trends mentioned in it have continued. On a constant currency basis, turnover in the first five months improved compared with the same period last year, and pre-tax profits have moved ahead strongly. The Group has performed well in this important trading period and the Board remains confident of the outlook for the full year."

Prior to the release of today's AGM statement, the share-price graph had been showing mixed signals (as annotated below)...

Photo-Me International (PHTM) - Mixed Signals on the Graph!

Will the share price rally from here, as a result of this positive AGM Statement? What do you think?

 Mick (23rd October 2014)

Redde : Preliminary Results (4th September 2014)

Excellent Set of Results from Redde (REDD)

Following a break out from the recent price downtrend (see graph below), Redde today released an excellent set of preliminary results.

The preliminary results included good news for those of us holding Redde shares, as a final dividend of 3.5p was announced (subject to shareholders approval). The section from the results, showing 2014 dividends is set out below...

Based on the current share price (as I write this), this equates to a 5.34% final dividend (making a 10.45% total dividend for 2014). Fair reward for shareholders I would say.

There will be more on Redde in the DIY-Investors Inner Circle Webinar this evening at 8pm. 

Orosur Mining - Results (18th August 2014)

Orosur Mining (OMI) - Preliminary Results

The full year results for Orosur Mining were released this morning - and make good reading, for those DIY-Investors that have been following this undervalued company.

The start of the turnaround can be seen on the Sharescope Graph (below)...

There is a new post on DIY-Investors about Orosur Mining HERE.