Panmure Gordon (SP=19.5p) - Recovery Play?

Is Panmure Gordon (PMR) a Recovery Opportunity?

Panmure Gordon (SP=19.5p, MCAP=£30.1m) seems to be undergoing a recovery, having seemingly completed a sloping (and untidy) inverted Head & Shoulders pattern, see below...

The resistance level at about 19.5p, had previously given support (in late 2008/early 2009), as can be seen on the longer term graph (below)...

 Panmure Gordon - Key Metrics

What stands out on the Sharescope "Key Metrics" (below), is the fact that a large part of the MCAP seems to comprise cash (£11.687m as at 30th June 2012, see the PMR Interim Results).

Recent News

With the improvements noted in the interim report and recent good news (see above), coupled with a rising share price and strengthening OBV, Panmure Gordon looks like it's worthy of consideration by us DIY-Investors. What do you think?

DIY-Investors Live Internet TV Broadcast Tonight!

The next Live TV Broadcast is tonight at 8pm GMT (3pm EST).

Mick Pavey will present the show, which will include:

• A look back at the markets for 2012
• Mick's personal view of 2012 (successes and failures)
• Some thoughts for 2013

You can join Mick by using this link to the DIY-Investors Live TV Show at 8pm.

"Picking Winning Shares" - Free (for now!)

Picking Winning Shares

As a gift for Thanksgiving, we've decided to make Mick's eBook version of "Picking Winning Shares" free until midnight tomorrow (24th November).

"Picking Winning Shares" (Kindle version) is available (free) from Amazon, until Saturday 24th November 2012.

Enjoy the Thanksgiving Holiday (or the wet weekend if you're in the UK!).

Set Your Alarm Early Tomorrow Folks

I'm getting up early tomorrow...

Have you lost your marbles Mick, I hear you ask. Well, not quite. My reason is that I've just spotted a breakout that caused me to go digging about. Well, it's better than watching TV (or answering the door to the blasted Trick or Treaters).

Now, to the point...

Mirada

Mirada (AIM: MIRA) showed a clear breakout above the 200 day m.a. today (with volume), moving up 1p to 10.5p. See the graph below:

Looking at the Key Metrics (below) didn't give too many clues...

A young company with a PSR below 1.0 (in this case 0.78) is always good. There are no forecasts on Sharescope, so I went digging around on the Company's website, checked the last two sets of accounts and the various RNS announcements.

What really caught my eye was the Mirada RNS yesterday (30th October 2012), which states (inter alia) that

"Our Interims to 30th September 2012 will be reported on 1 November and I am pleased to say that we anticipate that they will show a significant improvement in performance.”show a significant improvement."

Coupled with the recent news about the tie ups with Cablecom Mexico and Sky Italia, I expect the shareprice to respond accordingly.

Usual Caveats... make up your own mind and DYOR.

I'm off to set my alarm clock!

Mick.

Don't peep - two bottoms on view!

Premier Foods (LSE: PFD)

Premier Foods was up 10.5% today, closing at 101.5p. The share price graph is starting to show clear signs of forming a "Double Bottom", see below:

With momentum building, following the RNS announcement today, re. the completion of the disposal of the Sweet Spreads and Jellies Business for £200m (£170m cash + £30m shares in the buyer [Hain Celestial]), the completion of a double bottom formation looks more likely than not. If this does happen, it could bode well for us DIY-Investors that spotted the signs.

What do you think - will this be a trick or treat?

Mick.

Olympic Spin Off for Halfords?

Halfords (LSE: HFD), closed at £2.30 on Friday

Although this in itself is not significant, being a modest 2.4% increase for the day, there is some  interest for us DIY-Investors, starting with the SP graph...

I've numbered the relevant points in orange on the graph, as follows:

1. Double bottom formation
2. Brakout above the 50 day moving average (blue line)
3. OBV breaks out above the downtrend line (marked orange on the OBV indicator)
4. Buy signal on the slow ADX (blue line crosses up through red line), one day after...
5. Buy signal on fast ADX (25th July)

So, is there anything of interest, within the fundamentals, on the Key Metrics?

Yep!

Again, I've marked some of the salient points, as follows:

1. Yield (h) 9.57% - which is higher than the P/E ratio of 6.74 (by about 42%!)
2. Low PSR(pr) being 0.54  (£457.6m/£849.1m)
3. Cashflow per share consistently higher than eps
4. Slightly lower profit margin last FY of 10.41% but still reasonable for a retailer
5. Net Gearing still not excessive (although increased slightly)

Other factors  that should work in Halfords favour

Team GB at the front of the peleton in Mickleham (Olympic Mens Road Race, 28th July)

With the recent success of the Olympic Cycling, there is even more interest in all forms of cycling (road, racing, bmx etc) - which I believe should be good for Halfords.

Similarly, the economic conditions favour DIY car maintenance - which should feed through to higher sales for Halfords.

Recent RNS Announcement (19th July)

There were mixed messages in the RNS on 19th July (see below)...

The resignation of the CEO may leave HFD in limbo until a replacement is found but it could also be the start of the action that turns Halfords around.

Improving weather, successful Olympics and school summer holidays will hopefully bring a change of direction for the bike sales in halfords. We'll just have to wait and see.

Summary

As ever, we have to make up our own minds on this but I like the strong balance sheet, DY above PE and the shareprice graph.

What do you think? Please let me know.

What! - Pendragon Again?

OK, OK - But take a look at this (Pendragon up 8.93% today)!

Pendragon (LSE: PDG) closed today at 15.25p (up 1.25p or 8.93%). So what's got me off my backside to miss tonight's Olympics? Well,have a look for yourselves...

It's this bullish reversal pattern (yellow arrow on graph), with its base on the sloping support line (magenta colour) and the high volume today. In my opinion, this could herald the start of another upward move - following the interim results released on Tuesday 7th August.

It's worth reminding ourselves of the long-term shareprice graph (see below)...

From this, you can see the resistance line, connecting the lower highs, and the lateral breakout that I referred to in my Live TV Broadcast on 7th August. There looks to be a support line developing which, if it remains intact, bodes well for the future of PDG in the DIY-Investors portfolio.

As usual, DYOR and I recommend that this includes you reading the Interim Results and the Analysts Presentation (7th August 2012).

Mick.

Is Thomas Cook Turning?

Thomas Cook Group (LSE: TCG), closed last night at 16.0p - giving a MCAP of £140m for a Company turning over in excess of £9Billion a year. What caught my attention was the clear breakout from the downtrend (see below)...

In terms of fundamentals, the Sharescope Key Metrics (below), show clearly what has been happening...

From this, you can see that the PSR(h) is only 0.014 (MCAP 140.0m / T.O. £9808m) and the PSR(pr) is 0.015 (MCAP £140.0m / T.O.(pr) £9662m), reflecting it's recent past history.

Surviving the challenges of the recession is the game for Thomas Cook and making money from successful turnarounds is one the great ways for DIY-Investors to beat the markets. So what are the factors that we should take into account in making our decision about whether to invest or not?

Well, from my research this morning, here is the position as I see it:


Technical Analysis

Having suffered a drop from 272p (Spring 2010) to the recent low of 10.2p (22nd November 2011), with a fall of 96.3% in the past 28 months or so (see below), the shares in TCG can truly be said to be "out of favour" with the smart city money.

However, there is a clear breakout from the downtrend, coupled with the following signals which you could argue are the first indications of a change of sentiment (and possible opportunity for us DIY-Investors). The short term graph (below) is very interesting!

From the initial breakout (above the 50 day m.av.), the price drifted back, went sideways but then met resistance from the downtrend line until Tuesday 17th July, when it broke through. It did this very "quietly" with no great volume to announce this to the World. Yesterday, it followed with another tick up, with slightly increased volume (but still nothing to shout about).

However, what sealed it for me was the very slight twitch (up) on the OBV, coupled with the buy signal on the ADX indicators (lower two secondary indicators above). The RSI also started to turn up.

The Debt Problem

TCG have made it clear that lowering debt has been made a priority and the Shareholders Approval (29th May 2012) to "Life Saving Asset Sales", coupled with the appointment of Harriet Green (previously boss at Premier Farnell) as the new CEO to mastermind the recovery (or should it be resuscitation?).

The proposed sale of its Spanish Hotel Chain and a 77% stake in Thomas Cook India, together with proposed sale & leaseback of some aircraft might just be enough to allow the patient to breath.


Summary

There is clearly a lot of risk in investing in TCG but having just re-read Peter Lynch's book "One Up on Wall Street"  during my recent (wet) holiday in Cornwall, I can see potential reward too!

As ever, please "Do Your Own Research" and make up your own mind on this!

Mick.

Webbed Feet!

Like any of you that have been on holiday in the UK for the past fortnight, I have returned home with Webbed Feet! We spent most of the time picking our way through puddles or "squidging" up and down the sodden South-West Coastal Path around Cornwall's Lizard Peninsula!

Just occasionally, the sun popped out through the clouds, to remind us what summer could be like and how picturesque the Cornish coastline is...

Coverack (at low tide)

Our holiday spanned the end of June but I was able to record the DIY-Investors Portfolio Performances, which produced some very interesting results as can be seen in the full report here: DIY-Investors Portfolio Performance (6 months to 30th June 2012)

I'd be interested to hear about your views on whether I'm right to hang on to UK Coal.

British Polythene Industries (BPI, SP=349.5p) - Resuming Uptrend?

BPI closed tonight at 349.5p which, although not in itself a significant rise, does seem to confirm the possible resumption of the uptrend that had been in place from February 2011 to March 2012. BPI has been in a short term (against the trend) drop, indicated by the blue dotted lines on the annotated Sharescope chart (below)...

Note that the OBV has increased significantly this Spring and the Key Metrics (below), show a strong position...

I've underlined some key points, namely:

• Reducing Debt
• Reduction in Net Gearing
• Increasing Profit
• Increasing eps (47.66p in year to 31.12.2011)

The other factor that interests me is the low PSR (0.18), which seems to be low for a Company that has an operating margin consistently 3 to 4% of turnover.
 
As you know, this is one of our Share-Picks for 2012, contained in both the DIY-Investors Passive Portfolios and my Actively Managed Portfolios. It will be interesting to watch BPI's progress over the next few months.

What you think of BPI's prospects?

As usual, my recommendation is to check it out for yourself and make up your own mind as a "DIY-Investor".

Mick.

Mobile Streams - Reversal Signal?

Mobile Streams (AIM: MOS), closed tonight at 25.0p (down 4p - 13.8%). This looks to be a classic Low - high, High - Low reversal and perhaps signals a time to take profits on this young growth Company, current MCAP = £9.1m.

The graph below shows the clear signal...

Since we spotted the breakout on 14th March 2012, when the price was 11.875p, MOS has had a good run - increasing by 13.125p (+110.5%) at the closing price today. However, now seems like a good time to take profits and wait for the next set of results, as I believe the likelihood is that a drift back in the share price is on the cards.

However, with the volatile market and the looming Greek election on Sunday, it would be a brave person that would suggest re-investing before next week!

As ever, DYOR and make up your own mind on Mobile Streams.

Happy Investing - despite the gloomy weather!

Mick.

DIY-Investors Live Internet TV Broadcast - TODAY (8pm)

DIY-Investors TV Broadcast

We would like to remind you that we will be broadcasting a Live Internet TV Show TODAY (Tuesday 3rd April 2012) at 8pm.

Topics will include:

DIY-Investors Portfolios (3 months to 31st March)
Analysis of Game Group's demise
Discussion of DIY-Investors recent sharepicks, including; Shaft Sinkers (SHFT), Mobile Streams (MOS), Real Good Food Group (RGD) and STV Group (STVG)

Mick Pavey will be hosting the broadcast, which can be found on this LINK.