Serica Energy: H1 2022 Forecast Turnover (11th August 2022)

Now that Serica Energy [SQZ] have confirmed (9th August 2022) that they no longer intend to submit a firm offer for Kistos plc [KIST] and the reverse has also been confirmed by Kistos, we still need to consider what the likely H1 Results will be for Serica Energy. Has anything changed recently to alter my view of the likely turnover for SQZ - either for the half year to 30th June (completed) or for the full year (12mths to 31st December 2022)?

If you haven't seen my video (26th July 2022), you may wish to watch this first...

   

  Update (11th August 2022)

Now that things have settled down, it's worth checking the recent UK gas prices, for clues on the second half turnover and also for the com pleted first 6 months of the Serica financial year.

As you can see (above), the prospects for a positive pricing framework for the second half seems very likely. Incidentally, I've added vertical lines & annotation, to make the SQZ first half clear. We approach the winter, with the energy crisis very much on everyone's minds. The gas price, in the first 6 weeks of this second half period are clearly higher than the Q2 price levels (April-June).

In summary, if anything the turnover levels that I've calculated in the above video could well be too conservative. Had there been any recent (negative) announcements, regarding production, from Serica, then I might have had doubts but on current information I'm reasonably confident about my calculations!

Mick (11th August 2022)