DIY-Investors Portfolios (Transactions)

Portfolio Changes

I've recently made some changes to the actively managed portfolios and so I thought I'd post a mid-month update.

UK Coal

The first change was the sale of UK Coal (UKC) from both the 5 stock and 10 stock actively managed portfolios. I've shown the chart below...

The red arrows, marked on the graph, serve to illustrate the following points:

• The 50 day moving average is in a decline, with the price seemingly unable to break above it (apart from a day or two at the beginning of May).
• The OBV has been moving steadily downwards since the Spring.
• The AD indicators are still registering a downtrend and this is increasing (solid line rising).

Results

The recent UKC H1 results (released Friday 10th August 2012), showed a return to form for the Company (a loss!). Notwithstanding the apparent tangible book value, the news on re-structuring gives little hope for an early resolution or indeed that there will be much left for shareholders. Either way, the likely delay and regulatory approval made me decide that there are better places to invest our funds (albeit virtual funds in this case). The lesson here is clear - don't ignore the Technical Analysis! I sold both holdings at 6.3p

Purchases

I have recently started to become increasingly bullish in my views about the automotive retailers/distributors, as you probably gathered from my recent broadcasts and Blog posts. I have therefore re-invested the proceeds into Pendragon (LSE:PDG) and Vertu Motors (AIM: VTU) - the mystery company that I posed the question about during the TV Broadcast on 7th August. Full details of the purchases will follow in the next internet TV Broadcast on 5th September at 8pm.

Olympic Spin Off for Halfords?

Halfords (LSE: HFD), closed at £2.30 on Friday

Although this in itself is not significant, being a modest 2.4% increase for the day, there is some  interest for us DIY-Investors, starting with the SP graph...

I've numbered the relevant points in orange on the graph, as follows:

1. Double bottom formation
2. Brakout above the 50 day moving average (blue line)
3. OBV breaks out above the downtrend line (marked orange on the OBV indicator)
4. Buy signal on the slow ADX (blue line crosses up through red line), one day after...
5. Buy signal on fast ADX (25th July)

So, is there anything of interest, within the fundamentals, on the Key Metrics?

Yep!

Again, I've marked some of the salient points, as follows:

1. Yield (h) 9.57% - which is higher than the P/E ratio of 6.74 (by about 42%!)
2. Low PSR(pr) being 0.54  (£457.6m/£849.1m)
3. Cashflow per share consistently higher than eps
4. Slightly lower profit margin last FY of 10.41% but still reasonable for a retailer
5. Net Gearing still not excessive (although increased slightly)

Other factors  that should work in Halfords favour

Team GB at the front of the peleton in Mickleham (Olympic Mens Road Race, 28th July)

With the recent success of the Olympic Cycling, there is even more interest in all forms of cycling (road, racing, bmx etc) - which I believe should be good for Halfords.

Similarly, the economic conditions favour DIY car maintenance - which should feed through to higher sales for Halfords.

Recent RNS Announcement (19th July)

There were mixed messages in the RNS on 19th July (see below)...

The resignation of the CEO may leave HFD in limbo until a replacement is found but it could also be the start of the action that turns Halfords around.

Improving weather, successful Olympics and school summer holidays will hopefully bring a change of direction for the bike sales in halfords. We'll just have to wait and see.

Summary

As ever, we have to make up our own minds on this but I like the strong balance sheet, DY above PE and the shareprice graph.

What do you think? Please let me know.

What! - Pendragon Again?

OK, OK - But take a look at this (Pendragon up 8.93% today)!

Pendragon (LSE: PDG) closed today at 15.25p (up 1.25p or 8.93%). So what's got me off my backside to miss tonight's Olympics? Well,have a look for yourselves...

It's this bullish reversal pattern (yellow arrow on graph), with its base on the sloping support line (magenta colour) and the high volume today. In my opinion, this could herald the start of another upward move - following the interim results released on Tuesday 7th August.

It's worth reminding ourselves of the long-term shareprice graph (see below)...

From this, you can see the resistance line, connecting the lower highs, and the lateral breakout that I referred to in my Live TV Broadcast on 7th August. There looks to be a support line developing which, if it remains intact, bodes well for the future of PDG in the DIY-Investors portfolio.

As usual, DYOR and I recommend that this includes you reading the Interim Results and the Analysts Presentation (7th August 2012).

Mick.

DIY-Investors - You're Keeping Me On My Toes!

My thanks to Simon & Mike for getting back to me so quickly, following the DIY-Investors Live TV Broadcast last night. The reason...

I dropped a "Clanger" (albeit a small one) - hopefully proving that I am fallible (and human - or so my Martian friends say). The item in question was the "Pendragon Breakout", wherein I stated that the results were due out on 23rd August 2012 (based on last year's timing - and as carried on Sharescope). This highlights an interesting fact, that Companies lower down the FTSE (and I believe on AIM as well) are not obliged to tell us in advance the date that they intend to release their results. The net effect - I got caught out! Oh well, that'll teach me to not check for announcements, on the day when I'm busy preparing for the TV Show.

So, do the Pendragon Interim Results change my view on anything?

Mike W. pointed me in the direction of a comment, contained within the interims, regarding the cashflow statement. The preamble (page 14 of the interims) stated:

My reading of this...

A slight 'slap on the wrist' by the Financial Reporting Review Panel, which doesn't change the net cash flows (or opening and closing cash positions). In summary, it doesn't change my observations that PDG seems to be turning around (recovering).

My apologies to viewers on behalf of my oversight but I hope you'll agree (particularly if you read the interims) that Pendragon deserves consideration as a recovery stock.

Mick (10.30am, Wednesday 8th August 2012)