Kenmare Resources (27th October 2017)

Kenmare Resources (KMR) - VideoCast

Recent News-Flow

Mick (27th October 2017)

Avocet Mining (AVM) - Breakout?

Breakout (28th April 2016) - AVM, Q1 Production Report

The RNS released this morning, by Avocet Mining, certainly produced a positive price reaction (see the Sharepad graph below):

The RNS (Q1 Production Report) is below:

This follows hard on the heels of the preliminary results, released just two days ago...

AVM - Preliminary Results (Summary):

Mick's View:

The combination of improved gold prices, the prelim and Q1 reports (above), should be of interest to all DIY-Investors in my opinion... of course, you'll need to DYOR and make up your own minds on that!

As usual, I'd be interested in your views, so why not leave a comment below?

Mick (28th April 2016)

Speedy Hire (SDY) : 12th May 2015

Will Speedy Hire "Speed Up"?

Speedy Hire (SDY), issued its Preliminary Results today (12th May 2015). These show that things are progressing well at the plant hire firm (see below)...

Couple these results with the "Breakout" from the recent downtrend and DIY-Investors might well benefit from taking a closer look at Speedy Hire.

What do think of the prospects for Speedy Hire over the next 12 months?

Mick (12th May 2015)

Is the 2014 Budget Good For DIY-Investors?

Free Webinar On The 2014 Budget & DIY-Investing

Following today's budget by the Chancellor (George Osborne), we've decided to run the next Free Webinar - this Friday (21st March, at 8pm GMT) on this topic. In particular, we'll be looking at whether the 2014 Budget is 'Good For DIY-Investors?'

You'll find a post on the 2014 Budget HERE, where you will be able to register for the webinar.

Mick (19th March 2014)

Best Investing Books for Christmas (2013)

Discounted Investment Books

With Christmas approaching, you might well be looking for an investing book to relax with. I've been looking and discovered that there are quite a few being discounted in the run up to Christmas. They include some classics and some newer books, so if you want some ideas, check out the list of Discounted Investment Books Here. All of the books on this list have discounts of 10% or more (as at 17th December 2013).

Free DIY-Investors Webinar This Evening (8pm)

Last Call - Join Us At DIY-Investors This Evening at 8pm

If you haven't already done so, you will need to register for the Free Webinar this evening (starting at 8pm BST).

Topics Include:

• Getting Started (as a DIY-Investor)
• Review of two popular (paid) investing tools
• Three excellent free sources of information
• How one of the DIY-Investors Portfolios doubled in 19 months
• When to Buy, Hold or Sell (examples)
• A simple Routine
• How Can DIY-Investors Help?

There are only a few places left, so hurry!  -  Register HERE

DIY-Investors - Free Webinar (Hurry Limited Places)

DIY-Investing (Wednesday 26th June 2013, 8pm BST)

If you're interested in finding out more about DIY-Investing, join our free webinar, by registering HERE. You'll need to hurry as places are allocated on a first come, first served basis and there are only 100 places available!

In this free webinar, we'll be covering:

• Why become a DIY-Investor?
• Is it the right approach for everyone?
• How to get started in DIY-Investing? 
• What tools do you need?
• What strategy is right for you?
• What next?

If you are new to DIY-Investing, or need help, don't miss this! 

Want to join a great community of fellow DIY-Investors? Check out www.diy-investors.com

DIY-Investors Live Internet TV Broadcast Tonight!

The next Live TV Broadcast is tonight at 8pm GMT (3pm EST).

Mick Pavey will present the show, which will include:

• A look back at the markets for 2012
• Mick's personal view of 2012 (successes and failures)
• Some thoughts for 2013

You can join Mick by using this link to the DIY-Investors Live TV Show at 8pm.

Mobile Streams - Results at last!

Mobile Streams (AIM: MOS) - Audited Results Out!

After a considerable wait, the final results for Mobile Streams have been released. They were worth waiting for, as they show an impressive set of numbers!

The Key Points, for the 12 months ended 30 June 2012, are:

• Revenues of £22m (compared to £15.5m for the 18 months ended 30 June 2011). All revenues are from continuing operations and include no exceptional items.
• Mobile Internet revenues of £16.5m (compared to £7.5m for the 18 months ended 30 June 2011).
• Trading EBITDA* was £2m (18 month period ended June 2011: £0.5m).
• Profit before tax was £1.6m (18 month period ended June 2011 £0.1m).
• Cash of £1.8m, with no debt (compared to £0.7m as at 31 December 2011).

Now, compare these results with the Sharescope Key Metrics, at close of play on Friday 7th December, (below):

As you can see, the Turnover & Profit + the net cash position have exceeded expectations and for us DIY-Investors, perhaps the shareprice over the coming weeks will  reward our patience. What do you think?

Set Your Alarm Early Tomorrow Folks

I'm getting up early tomorrow...

Have you lost your marbles Mick, I hear you ask. Well, not quite. My reason is that I've just spotted a breakout that caused me to go digging about. Well, it's better than watching TV (or answering the door to the blasted Trick or Treaters).

Now, to the point...

Mirada

Mirada (AIM: MIRA) showed a clear breakout above the 200 day m.a. today (with volume), moving up 1p to 10.5p. See the graph below:

Looking at the Key Metrics (below) didn't give too many clues...

A young company with a PSR below 1.0 (in this case 0.78) is always good. There are no forecasts on Sharescope, so I went digging around on the Company's website, checked the last two sets of accounts and the various RNS announcements.

What really caught my eye was the Mirada RNS yesterday (30th October 2012), which states (inter alia) that

"Our Interims to 30th September 2012 will be reported on 1 November and I am pleased to say that we anticipate that they will show a significant improvement in performance.”show a significant improvement."

Coupled with the recent news about the tie ups with Cablecom Mexico and Sky Italia, I expect the shareprice to respond accordingly.

Usual Caveats... make up your own mind and DYOR.

I'm off to set my alarm clock!

Mick.

Don't peep - two bottoms on view!

Premier Foods (LSE: PFD)

Premier Foods was up 10.5% today, closing at 101.5p. The share price graph is starting to show clear signs of forming a "Double Bottom", see below:

With momentum building, following the RNS announcement today, re. the completion of the disposal of the Sweet Spreads and Jellies Business for £200m (£170m cash + £30m shares in the buyer [Hain Celestial]), the completion of a double bottom formation looks more likely than not. If this does happen, it could bode well for us DIY-Investors that spotted the signs.

What do you think - will this be a trick or treat?

Mick.

TCG starting to cook?

Thomas Cook Group, TCG (SP=18.25p, MCAP=£159.7m)

Thomas Cook Group (TCG) closed at 18.25p this evening, having broken up through the flattish 200 day moving average. This follows an interesting Pre-Close Statement last Friday (28th September), which suggested that business had improved - with late foreign holiday bookings being a strong factor.

You may remember our previous Blog Post on 19th July 2012, when we asked if Thomas Cook was turning? Well, here at DIY-Investors, we now feel that the balance of evidence is showing that this  might well be the case. So, if this is the start of a long road back to recovery for TCG, let's take another look at the evidence...

Technical Analysis

The Long Term graph doesn't make a pretty picture, as you can see:

Having fallen, from 297.5p (6th May 2009) to 10.2p on 22nd November 2011 (a drop of 287.3p, 96.57%) in two and a half years, TCG has been bumping along the bottom for some weeks.

Fundamental Analysis

Trading the breakout of such a battered stock carries risk and potential reward. The Key Metrics (below), illustrate some of the problems facing TCG...

Having turned in a thumping loss last year (£398.2m), the loss is forecast to narrow considerably in the year that has just ended (on 30/09/2012).

Positive Points include:

• High Turnover but low PSR (0.16)
• Well established brand name (at least in most peoples eyes!)
• Cash-flow per share still positive last year, compared to eps (22.87p - v - 0.84p)
• Long-Term Funding in place - see Interim Results (May 2012)
• Positive action being taken to reduce borrowing (such as selling TCG India).

Negative Points include:

• High (and increasing borrowings)
• Net gearing has been rising for past 5 years
•  The squeeze on household expenditures may adversely affect discretionary spending (such as holidays)

 Recent Price Action (and Analysis)

The recent share price action, since the panic dump of November 2011, is worth looking at in greater detail...

You can see above that the price has clearly responded favourably to the pre-close statement last Friday. Note in particular:

• Increased volume in past two trading days
• Higher average volume last 10 or so trading days
• Buy signal on the ADX indicators (although I would like to see the 14 day ADX value higher)
• RS (against the FTSE 350 Travel & Leisure) has turned up, from a low position
• OBV has turned up
• Improving news recently (disposals etc)
• Horizontal Trading range of past 10 weeks has been broken to the upside

As usual, we all have to make up our own minds as DIY-Investors but the signs look promising!

Let us know what you think!

DIY-Investors Portfolios (Transactions)

Portfolio Changes

I've recently made some changes to the actively managed portfolios and so I thought I'd post a mid-month update.

UK Coal

The first change was the sale of UK Coal (UKC) from both the 5 stock and 10 stock actively managed portfolios. I've shown the chart below...

The red arrows, marked on the graph, serve to illustrate the following points:

• The 50 day moving average is in a decline, with the price seemingly unable to break above it (apart from a day or two at the beginning of May).
• The OBV has been moving steadily downwards since the Spring.
• The AD indicators are still registering a downtrend and this is increasing (solid line rising).

Results

The recent UKC H1 results (released Friday 10th August 2012), showed a return to form for the Company (a loss!). Notwithstanding the apparent tangible book value, the news on re-structuring gives little hope for an early resolution or indeed that there will be much left for shareholders. Either way, the likely delay and regulatory approval made me decide that there are better places to invest our funds (albeit virtual funds in this case). The lesson here is clear - don't ignore the Technical Analysis! I sold both holdings at 6.3p

Purchases

I have recently started to become increasingly bullish in my views about the automotive retailers/distributors, as you probably gathered from my recent broadcasts and Blog posts. I have therefore re-invested the proceeds into Pendragon (LSE:PDG) and Vertu Motors (AIM: VTU) - the mystery company that I posed the question about during the TV Broadcast on 7th August. Full details of the purchases will follow in the next internet TV Broadcast on 5th September at 8pm.

Olympic Spin Off for Halfords?

Halfords (LSE: HFD), closed at £2.30 on Friday

Although this in itself is not significant, being a modest 2.4% increase for the day, there is some  interest for us DIY-Investors, starting with the SP graph...

I've numbered the relevant points in orange on the graph, as follows:

1. Double bottom formation
2. Brakout above the 50 day moving average (blue line)
3. OBV breaks out above the downtrend line (marked orange on the OBV indicator)
4. Buy signal on the slow ADX (blue line crosses up through red line), one day after...
5. Buy signal on fast ADX (25th July)

So, is there anything of interest, within the fundamentals, on the Key Metrics?

Yep!

Again, I've marked some of the salient points, as follows:

1. Yield (h) 9.57% - which is higher than the P/E ratio of 6.74 (by about 42%!)
2. Low PSR(pr) being 0.54  (£457.6m/£849.1m)
3. Cashflow per share consistently higher than eps
4. Slightly lower profit margin last FY of 10.41% but still reasonable for a retailer
5. Net Gearing still not excessive (although increased slightly)

Other factors  that should work in Halfords favour

Team GB at the front of the peleton in Mickleham (Olympic Mens Road Race, 28th July)

With the recent success of the Olympic Cycling, there is even more interest in all forms of cycling (road, racing, bmx etc) - which I believe should be good for Halfords.

Similarly, the economic conditions favour DIY car maintenance - which should feed through to higher sales for Halfords.

Recent RNS Announcement (19th July)

There were mixed messages in the RNS on 19th July (see below)...

The resignation of the CEO may leave HFD in limbo until a replacement is found but it could also be the start of the action that turns Halfords around.

Improving weather, successful Olympics and school summer holidays will hopefully bring a change of direction for the bike sales in halfords. We'll just have to wait and see.

Summary

As ever, we have to make up our own minds on this but I like the strong balance sheet, DY above PE and the shareprice graph.

What do you think? Please let me know.

Is Thomas Cook Turning?

Thomas Cook Group (LSE: TCG), closed last night at 16.0p - giving a MCAP of £140m for a Company turning over in excess of £9Billion a year. What caught my attention was the clear breakout from the downtrend (see below)...

In terms of fundamentals, the Sharescope Key Metrics (below), show clearly what has been happening...

From this, you can see that the PSR(h) is only 0.014 (MCAP 140.0m / T.O. £9808m) and the PSR(pr) is 0.015 (MCAP £140.0m / T.O.(pr) £9662m), reflecting it's recent past history.

Surviving the challenges of the recession is the game for Thomas Cook and making money from successful turnarounds is one the great ways for DIY-Investors to beat the markets. So what are the factors that we should take into account in making our decision about whether to invest or not?

Well, from my research this morning, here is the position as I see it:


Technical Analysis

Having suffered a drop from 272p (Spring 2010) to the recent low of 10.2p (22nd November 2011), with a fall of 96.3% in the past 28 months or so (see below), the shares in TCG can truly be said to be "out of favour" with the smart city money.

However, there is a clear breakout from the downtrend, coupled with the following signals which you could argue are the first indications of a change of sentiment (and possible opportunity for us DIY-Investors). The short term graph (below) is very interesting!

From the initial breakout (above the 50 day m.av.), the price drifted back, went sideways but then met resistance from the downtrend line until Tuesday 17th July, when it broke through. It did this very "quietly" with no great volume to announce this to the World. Yesterday, it followed with another tick up, with slightly increased volume (but still nothing to shout about).

However, what sealed it for me was the very slight twitch (up) on the OBV, coupled with the buy signal on the ADX indicators (lower two secondary indicators above). The RSI also started to turn up.

The Debt Problem

TCG have made it clear that lowering debt has been made a priority and the Shareholders Approval (29th May 2012) to "Life Saving Asset Sales", coupled with the appointment of Harriet Green (previously boss at Premier Farnell) as the new CEO to mastermind the recovery (or should it be resuscitation?).

The proposed sale of its Spanish Hotel Chain and a 77% stake in Thomas Cook India, together with proposed sale & leaseback of some aircraft might just be enough to allow the patient to breath.


Summary

There is clearly a lot of risk in investing in TCG but having just re-read Peter Lynch's book "One Up on Wall Street"  during my recent (wet) holiday in Cornwall, I can see potential reward too!

As ever, please "Do Your Own Research" and make up your own mind on this!

Mick.

Mobile Streams - Reversal Signal?

Mobile Streams (AIM: MOS), closed tonight at 25.0p (down 4p - 13.8%). This looks to be a classic Low - high, High - Low reversal and perhaps signals a time to take profits on this young growth Company, current MCAP = £9.1m.

The graph below shows the clear signal...

Since we spotted the breakout on 14th March 2012, when the price was 11.875p, MOS has had a good run - increasing by 13.125p (+110.5%) at the closing price today. However, now seems like a good time to take profits and wait for the next set of results, as I believe the likelihood is that a drift back in the share price is on the cards.

However, with the volatile market and the looming Greek election on Sunday, it would be a brave person that would suggest re-investing before next week!

As ever, DYOR and make up your own mind on Mobile Streams.

Happy Investing - despite the gloomy weather!

Mick.