Sunday 12 August 2012

Olympic Spin Off for Halfords?

Halfords (LSE: HFD), closed at £2.30 on Friday


Although this in itself is not significant, being a modest 2.4% increase for the day, there is some  interest for us DIY-Investors, starting with the SP graph...


I've numbered the relevant points in orange on the graph, as follows:

  1. Double bottom formation
  2. Brakout above the 50 day moving average (blue line)
  3. OBV breaks out above the downtrend line (marked orange on the OBV indicator)
  4. Buy signal on the slow ADX (blue line crosses up through red line), one day after...
  5. Buy signal on fast ADX (25th July)
So, is there anything of interest, within the fundamentals, on the Key Metrics?


Yep!

Again, I've marked some of the salient points, as follows:

  1. Yield (h) 9.57% - which is higher than the P/E ratio of 6.74 (by about 42%!)
  2. Low PSR(pr) being 0.54  (£457.6m/£849.1m)
  3. Cashflow per share consistently higher than eps
  4. Slightly lower profit margin last FY of 10.41% but still reasonable for a retailer
  5. Net Gearing still not excessive (although increased slightly)

Other factors  that should work in Halfords favour

Team GB at the front of the peleton in Mickleham (Olympic Mens Road Race, 28th July)


With the recent success of the Olympic Cycling, there is even more interest in all forms of cycling (road, racing, bmx etc) - which I believe should be good for Halfords.

Similarly, the economic conditions favour DIY car maintenance - which should feed through to higher sales for Halfords.

Recent RNS Announcement (19th July)

There were mixed messages in the RNS on 19th July (see below)...


The resignation of the CEO may leave HFD in limbo until a replacement is found but it could also be the start of the action that turns Halfords around.

Improving weather, successful Olympics and school summer holidays will hopefully bring a change of direction for the bike sales in halfords. We'll just have to wait and see.

Summary

As ever, we have to make up our own minds on this but I like the strong balance sheet, DY above PE and the shareprice graph.

What do you think? Please let me know.

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