British Polythene Industries (BPI, SP=349.5p) - Resuming Uptrend?

BPI closed tonight at 349.5p which, although not in itself a significant rise, does seem to confirm the possible resumption of the uptrend that had been in place from February 2011 to March 2012. BPI has been in a short term (against the trend) drop, indicated by the blue dotted lines on the annotated Sharescope chart (below)...

Note that the OBV has increased significantly this Spring and the Key Metrics (below), show a strong position...

I've underlined some key points, namely:

• Reducing Debt
• Reduction in Net Gearing
• Increasing Profit
• Increasing eps (47.66p in year to 31.12.2011)

The other factor that interests me is the low PSR (0.18), which seems to be low for a Company that has an operating margin consistently 3 to 4% of turnover.
 
As you know, this is one of our Share-Picks for 2012, contained in both the DIY-Investors Passive Portfolios and my Actively Managed Portfolios. It will be interesting to watch BPI's progress over the next few months.

What you think of BPI's prospects?

As usual, my recommendation is to check it out for yourself and make up your own mind as a "DIY-Investor".

Mick.

Mobile Streams - Reversal Signal?

Mobile Streams (AIM: MOS), closed tonight at 25.0p (down 4p - 13.8%). This looks to be a classic Low - high, High - Low reversal and perhaps signals a time to take profits on this young growth Company, current MCAP = £9.1m.

The graph below shows the clear signal...

Since we spotted the breakout on 14th March 2012, when the price was 11.875p, MOS has had a good run - increasing by 13.125p (+110.5%) at the closing price today. However, now seems like a good time to take profits and wait for the next set of results, as I believe the likelihood is that a drift back in the share price is on the cards.

However, with the volatile market and the looming Greek election on Sunday, it would be a brave person that would suggest re-investing before next week!

As ever, DYOR and make up your own mind on Mobile Streams.

Happy Investing - despite the gloomy weather!

Mick.

UK Coal - Start of the Turnaround?

UK Coal (LSE: UKC), closed up 5.5p (+36.8%) today at 20p - giving it an MCAP of £59.7m. This followed the final results released last Friday, which showed a return to profit for the first time in 4 years. So what's going on?

Well, first of all, let's take a look at the long-term shareprice graph...

What is immediately apparent is that UKC is in the doldrums. from the heady days of 625p a share in Spring 1996, it has yo-yo'd over the years, ending down by 98% at its recent (20 year) low of 12.18p (where it opened on 23rd April 2012). Clearly a job for St.George and the Dragon!

Looking at the past 18 months, there weren't many technical analysis clues that a possible turnaround was on the cards (see below)...

The "panic dump" on 14th March 2012, when UKC dropped by 8.25p (-27.97%) to 21.25p was on high volume (8.29m of the 299m shares issued, changing hands that day). This came about as a result of the RNS released that day, which raised the issues of funding and re-structuring.

However, last Friday (27th April 2012) UKC released it's preliminary results for the year ended 31.12.2011 which, despite the RNS in March, showed the following key points:

• Total Group Revenue of £488.2 million (2010: £351.2m)
• Operating profit/(loss) before non-trading exceptional items of £65.2m (2010: £(74.3m))
• Profit/(loss) before tax of £58.0m (2010: £(124.6m))
• Total production of 7.5m tonnes (2010: 7.2m tonnes), in line with expectations
• Average sales price per Gigajoule (£/GJ): £2.48 (2010: £1.97)
• Property sales of £67m achieved slightly ahead of book value
• Group net bank debt reduced to £55m (2010: £141m)
• Total net debt, including generator loan/prepayments reduced from £242m to £139m

 This news was met with somewhat stunned disbelief by the market last Friday (UKC closed up 1.375p (+10.38%) for the day). However, presumably having chewed over the figures over the weekend, the market got going today, as can be seen below...

 Closing up 5.5p, a gain of 36.8% for the day, UKC has certainly livened up an otherwise cool Monday. The ADX indicators (fast & slow) have registered buy signals and the OBV has also turned up nicely.

So what do the Key Metrics look like after the results? See below...

A few points to note here:

1. At the close last Friday, UKC traded with a PE below 1!
2. Even now, its PSR  is only 0.12
3. Its turnover last year was up £137.02m (to £488.22m) - a gain of 39% (even with the shortfall at the Daw Mill Colliery)
4. UKC is trading below its tangible book value (even allowing for all the adverse factors affecting it - pension fund etc).
5. Its net borrowing is significantly down.
6. Its free of most of the low priced contracts and so price per tonne should increase further in the coming year.

Based on the above, you may not be surprised to hear that I've added UKC to both of my actively managed DIY-Portfolios. For those of us that have taken the plunge with UKC, 2012 could be an interesting year!

As usual, the normal caveats apply - DYOR etc.

Mick.

Provexis - Breakout! (PXS): 2.3p

Provexis has broken through a strong downtrend line that has been in place since December 2010 - see Sharescope graph (below)...

With the price closing at 2.3p (17th April 2012), a clear breakout is evident!

Looking into this, it seems as though this Company is really staring to get its act together, as witnessed by the recent newsflow:

• Pre-Close Statement (30th March 2012)
• Science in Sport Update (12th March 2012)
• Fruitflow Update (14th February 2012)

See also the "Product News" on the Provexis - Company Website

Looking at the newsflow, the interest in cycling in this (Olympic) year, the TA (rising OBV, RSI etc) - I can't help wondering if PXS is starting a recovery in the share price could bring rewards for us DIY-Investors?

Usual caveats about DYOR etc...

DIY-Investors Meetup Group (Tuesday 24th April, 2012)

On Tuesday 24th April, the DIY-Investors Meetup Group are getting together at The Lincoln Arms, Dorking (7pm). Full details of the event are HERE.

Why not come along and listen to Mick Pavey, who will be talking about combining Fundamental & Technical Analysis to Pick Winning Shares.



Among the Companies being covered, in the presentation, are:

• Shaft Sinkers (SHFT)
• Dixons Retail (DXNS)
• Premier Foods (PFD)
• JJB Sports (JJB)
• Coastal Energy (CEO)

There will be ample opportunity to quiz Mick about his methods and to network/socialise with fellow DIY-Investors, so please come and Join Us .

DIY-Investors Live Internet TV Broadcast - TODAY (8pm)

DIY-Investors TV Broadcast

We would like to remind you that we will be broadcasting a Live Internet TV Show TODAY (Tuesday 3rd April 2012) at 8pm.

Topics will include:

DIY-Investors Portfolios (3 months to 31st March)
Analysis of Game Group's demise
Discussion of DIY-Investors recent sharepicks, including; Shaft Sinkers (SHFT), Mobile Streams (MOS), Real Good Food Group (RGD) and STV Group (STVG)

Mick Pavey will be hosting the broadcast, which can be found on this LINK.

Mobile Streams - Breakout (11.875p)

Mobile Streams, the Company that sells 'apps' (mobile phone applications), closed up 25% (at 11.875p) today. The long-term SP graph shows a downtrend, since the high of 36.75p (18th March 2011) - see the graph below...

Looking at the shorter term graph, this is even clearer (see below)...

You'll note that the ADX has given a buy signal today and that the OBV has kicked up too. So what about the fundamentals?

Looking at the Sharescope key metrics (below) is interesting!

The first thing to note is that the key metrics (along with the newsflow - particularly the half year results) indicates that the Company is growing quickly. Secondly, the PSR is well below 1 (see the turnover figures above, compared to the MCAP). This gives opportunity for us DIY-Investors in my opinion.

The price action since the start of the year, shows the clear breakout that seems to have taken place...

Here you can see the clear kick up in the OBV & RSI, together with the buy signals on both the fast and slow ADX indicators. You can also see that the price has broken significantly up through the 50 day moving average (blue line) on high volume.

As always, DYOR and make up your own mind!